From Planning to Performance: Lessons from Black Friday & Cyber Monday 2025

The story in brief

• Black Friday sales terms saw search demand fall by 1.3% globally
• eCommerce remains strong with growth of around 4.2% forecast
• Effective planning and marketing strategies generate growth of 24-30% during peak
• ChatGPT drives almost all AI platform revenue, fuelled by more than 500% YoY growth
• ChatGPT & LLMs remain under-represented in last-click attribution, with just 0.44% of revenue attributed, though their popularity continues to grow for research & comparison

How is customer demand changing?

A complete view of consumer interest and sentiment around Black Friday will only emerge once more industry data is available. However, we’re able to share some early indicators of customer demand and behaviour already.

The British Retail Consortium and KPMG reported a drop in retail sales of 0.3%, and MRI Software reported a decrease in visits to physical stores of 7.2% year on year. However, this doesn’t mean customers are no longer engaging with Black Friday and Cyber Monday – they’re increasingly doing so online.

eCommerce reports strong growth YoY

Adobe’s headline figure is an expected increase in holiday spending of 4.2% with Black Friday itself up by around 6%. Shopify have already announced an incredible 24% increase in revenues through their platform year on year over the same period – though this is impacted by the performance and total number of businesses operating on their platform over time.

Across our eCommerce partners, we’ve experienced similar growth, with total revenue generated 30% higher year on year for Black Friday & Cyber Monday weekend.[i]

What differentiates these sample businesses from Adobe’s more subdued forecasts, and what allows brands to grow beyond market trends? Peak season growth is built in the period beforehand, and is the result of a strategy developed and delivered in the year leading up to this weekend.

Develop your marketing strategy throughout the year, not just for peak. This includes developing your on-site experience, marketing audiences, and a unified content strategy so brands have an engaged audience ahead of peak. The best performing brands were able to plan activity, media spend, and discounting strategies ahead of November, with performance outcomes in mind.

Incentivise in the customers who need convincing, nurture and engage existing buyers. This includes thorough testing of brand bidding strategies, remarketing audiences, and creative. The aim is to incentivise the users who may walk away, while growing brand loyalty and value alignment with our most valuable audiences.

Create valuable customers. This doesn’t always mean prioritising campaigns and audiences that buy the biggest ticket items – customers acquired through price incentives alone are easily lost next time they’re in-market. Focus on activity that generates the highest lifetime value throughout the year, and build your base while encouraging brand love in customers whose loyalty is in question.

Make life easy for your audience  – whether that’s ensuring we have a seamless checkout and payment platform, or improving site search and navigation, customers balk when they encounter friction. User-first content design and accessibility go a long way to maximising your return on investment throughout the year, not just during peak.

AI commerce has grown, but remains a bit player

It would be remiss of any business not to stay abreast of AI companies’ product development – especially as OpenAI continues to develop its ads and shopping offering. As a headline figure, growth for revenues attributed to ChatGPT are 499% increased year on year across our eCommerce partners.

This level of growth is, on its surface, incredible – however it’s important for marketing managers to keep expectations for these channels in check. ChatGPT represented just 0.4% of reported revenue, making its contribution to direct business outcomes limited.

Notably other LLMs contributed very few direct conversions, with less than £200 generated by Microsoft Copilot, and no revenue attributed to Claude/Perplexity or Gemini.

What remains unclear is the contribution or value of Google’s AI Mode, nor the contribution of these channels as part of the user’s broader journey. ChatGPT and LLMs don’t show many links in their responses, and when they do click through rates are typically very low. They are increasingly popular for finding deals, comparing products, and finding inspiration for gifts, fashion, and other product categories.

eCommerce brands are likely to be rewarded with increased visibility in these platforms if they provide descriptions of real-world uses and benefits. Customer reviews offer valuable insights for enriching product pages with content that improves both AI-driven and user experiences.

While a business case based purely on revenue is hard to make, an AI-aware content & optimisation strategy is invaluable in creating business resilience as Google and OpenAI continue to invest in these new platforms and features. And while Google’s search & ads platforms continue to develop AI integration, having a platform that works for AI & search will provide much needed resilience as brands look ahead to 2026.